On Tuesday, Toyota Motor Corporation announced its commitment to provide 8 trillion yen (US$70 billion) to one day achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. Although the concept of any multinational manufacturing entity to completely eliminate its carbon footprint may seem ridiculous, we call it another electrification strategy-considering Toyota's aversion to electric vehicles so far, this is still a big deal.
Despite being a leader in environmental protection trends for Prius hybrids, Toyota has been hesitant to make a formal commitment to transform its lineup to rely on battery power. However, President Akio Toyoda just proudly confirmed that the Japanese automaker will allocate funds specifically for this purpose, noting that the brand (together with Lexus) will spend this money by 2030 to secure its global electric vehicles Sales volume (BEV) reaches 3.5 million vehicles per year. Although the most pleasant aspect of the release is its direct presentation, Akio Toyoda's honesty of modern car trends is impressive.
"We live in a diversified world and an era where the future is unpredictable. Therefore, it is difficult for everyone to be satisfied with the one-size-fits-all choice. This is why Toyota wants to prepare as many choices as possible for our customers around the world. We believe that all electric vehicles can be divided into two categories based on the energy they use," President Akio Toyoda said in his speech. "One category is'carbon-reduced vehicles'. If the energy used to power the car is not clean, then the use of electric vehicles, no matter what type it is, will not lead to zero carbon dioxide emissions. The other category is "carbon-neutral vehicles." This type of vehicle uses clean energy and achieves zero carbon dioxide emissions during the entire process of use. Toyota will do our best to achieve this type of vehicle."
It is said that this has led to the gradual replacement of products using in-line internal combustion engine power systems with hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, battery electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. However, half of the US$70 billion will be dedicated to the development and manufacturing of BEVs. Although Toyoda said that if it wants to take its environmental aspirations seriously, the company needs to pay attention to the types of products it provides.
"The important thing is how much we can improve the overall energy efficiency of the vehicle, in other words, how much less energy is required to operate the vehicle. This is the technology Toyota has been improving for more than 30 years," he said. "Do our best in this regard. The goal of this car is 125 watt-hours of power consumption per kilometer, which will be the highest in the compact SUV class."
Toyota hopes to introduce small electric vehicles that provide enviable efficiency as soon as possible, and hopes to surpass its previous goal of launching 15 new BEVs by 2025. But it is also working to determine how to adjust existing models to use battery power (presumably through hybrid power). On the surface, this will be a relatively slow process for the Toyota brand—especially in the North American market— Lexus will see more radical changes to cater to high-income earners who tend to buy more electric vehicles.
Considering that the sales of electric vehicles still account for about 2% of the annual new car sales, this is still a major risk for Toyota. But this is a calculated one (the automaker seeks to electrify about a third of its total sales by 2030) and has been working behind the scenes for many years. Although the company is notorious for acting cautiously to maximize reliability, its R&D department is well-funded and does not exist in a vacuum.
It has been researching all the same technologies that its competitors have, and teasing out electric concepts from small sports cars to full-size pickup trucks. Toyota even expressed its willingness to share its existing battery technology with other manufacturers, while deciding how to use it, and plans to spend $1.29 billion to build a battery factory in the United States.
But it would be a lie to say that Toyota is not behind in making formal commitments. Although your author would argue that the manufacturer’s promises are usually exaggerated and have little hope of fulfillment within the specified time frame, Toyota is not trying to hide the fact that it is a little hesitant to invest fully in electric vehicles. The company decided not to work with a few automakers (including General Motors and Ford) to commit to phasing out internal-combustion vehicles by 2040. It also opposes the update of the electric vehicle tax credit program proposed by the Biden administration (as well as Tesla and Honda). However, its main concern is how to allocate funds to provide more funds to companies that use union labor.
After talking to many Toyota engineers, the brunt of the company’s electrification problem seems to revolve around a general anxiety that if the company rushes to adopt new technologies prematurely, the company’s products will lose its greatest advantage (above-average reliability). sex). Although I cannot pretend to know what actually happened at the board meeting, or what might be hidden (or not) in the garage of the Toyota Skunk Factory. Hope we don’t have to wait too long to find the answer. As the bZ4X has been shown, and more bz models should be in sight, it sounds like Toyota has more things for us.
Of course, bZ4X was jointly developed with Subaru...
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There will be many hard-to-sell electric cars that require strong support from manufacturers and the government to move. On the contrary, ideal gassers will bring a premium.
Tesla made the same prediction when its incentives expired, but they still can't make cars fast enough.
"When the incentives expired, Tesla made the same prediction, but they still couldn't make cars fast enough."
Tesla is a cult organization, and cultists are scrambling to drink Kool-Aid.
Toyota will build calm, well-thought-out mainstream cars for mainstream buyers-in other words, Toyota will remain an ordinary car manufacturer.
With sales exceeding one million, this is not a cult. Maybe people don't like the torque lag you get with ICE, but like the ability to refuel at home? Add in all maintenance issues, such as oil changes and brakes, which lasted less than 100,000 miles. Not to mention the non-durable exhaust system.
Apple is like this. The difference between it and the cult is only one percent of true fanatics. As Tesla grows, the same thing will happen.
You can say the same to Apple and Nokia. Where is Nokia? Nokia is the Toyota of mobile phones.
One million people join the cult every year?
The $1.29 billion is only a fraction of the $5 billion Tesla spent on the Gigafactory in Nevada, and the joint venture with Stellattis is still only for lithium-ion technology.
Their efficiency target is about 5 miles/kWh. This is the performance of my compact electric car in the summer under ideal conditions-a lot-but it doesn't work for every car under all conditions. Even the Model 3 has a rated power of only 4.2 mph, so Toyota will have to surpass Tesla's efficiency in order to reach their goal-something that no one else has done yet.
Toyota is still playing with hydrogen and still hopes that others will pay for the infrastructure. I think they are ashamed of staying away from hydrogen, just like Mazda cannot stay away from the rotor and Subaru can do nothing but the boxer engine.
So yes, I am skeptical. By 2030, Tesla will produce electric cars for 22 years. Toyota may be competitive, but they will not be the leader.
@SCE: Although I didn't calculate any figures, 5 miles/kWh should be feasible, and the density of the next-generation battery is 380 Wh/kg.
The biggest risk Toyota faces is being able to mass-produce its solid-state batteries. If they can't figure this out, they will be in big trouble.
"They are ashamed to stay away from hydrogen, just like Mazda can't stay away from the rotor, Subaru can do nothing but the boxer engine."
You are right, they are trying to save face. That's what the Japanese did. This is a weakness that their Americans don't have. Charging infrastructure is easier to deploy than hydrogen infrastructure. This makes fuel cells impractical in most countries. This may be done in Japan or Monaco, but not in large countries.
"Charging infrastructure is easier to deploy than hydrogen infrastructure."
Nominally deployment is one thing. Reliably maintain, something completely different.
Ask a Lebanese...or, for that matter, a Californian...those who need uptime, storing diesel (or at least natural gas) and a few generators.
Most parts of the world may never have a nearly 100% reliable power grid like Northern Europe/Western Europe, which the United States had in its heyday. Relying entirely on always-on is rarely a formula to win reliability. In terms of reliability, buffered packet-switched topologies are almost always better than unbuffered, or circuit-switched topologies for that matter. And buffer diesel, a bit-maybe sometimes-a horrible lot of Toyta-level engineering and hard work, if we are lucky and have a little faith-just-maybe H2, much easier than the same electronics.
Hydrogen is stored at a low temperature of 10,000 psi. That is handled by NASA.
We have distributed electricity in the United States for more than a century-this is not difficult to do.
It's late for the party, but I bet they won't go home alone.
What happened to the idea of the range extender engine? I travel 500 to 1,000 miles on the road at least once a year, and I need to drive 500 miles steadily without spending a lot of time on recharging.
With the solid-state batteries they are putting into mass production, they may be able to exceed 500 miles, and the charging time should be reduced.
Range extenders seem to be the redundant answer to this question. Hybrid vehicles and even plug-in hybrid vehicles have solved this problem.
When the driver learns that its 650 cc engine cannot provide the same power as the battery, the range extender in the BMW i3 ReX becomes dangerous, as if they were passing a truck on the mountain.
Volt is actually a well-functioning range extender, but it has been eliminated by modern electric vehicles.
Mazda has always promised to use rotary range extenders in electric vehicles, but I believe we will never see that unicorn.
For the specific needs you mentioned, I think it’s more cost-effective to drive an electric car for 50 weeks a day and then rent a good car for long-distance travel. However, the upcoming new 800-volt architecture allows very fast charging-the new Hyundai Ioniq claims to be able to go from 10% to 80% in 18 minutes.
The Volt has a 1.5-liter gasoline engine and 2 electric motors. There is no range extender. In ICE mode, the larger motor will become a generator and charge the battery. Ensure that the smaller electric motor is always able to power overtaking, merging, running red lights or reaching highway speeds.
GM officially sold the Volt as an extended-range EV, initially intending to configure it so that ICE cannot directly power the vehicle. Of course, they found that ICE is more efficient in providing direct mechanical propulsion, and this is how it works.
The biggest difference between Range Extended Volt and traditional PHEV is that Volt has all functions in EV mode, while PHEV will start the engine to meet higher power requirements.
BMW is an example of poor programming and poor consumer education. It only needs to enter the RE mode before the battery runs out.
Volt is a series hybrid vehicle, which means it is an electric vehicle, and the ICE is turned on until the battery is exhausted. This is almost a range extender.
People will brag about "1,000 miles per gallon" because they will drive for a month without ICE. But after about 50 miles of continuous use and no plug-in, ICE had to start. That is a range extender.
"The important thing is how much we can improve the overall energy efficiency of the vehicle, in other words, how much less energy is required to operate the vehicle. This is the technology Toyota has been improving for more than 30 years," he said.
If anyone can make the electric car that people want, it's Toyota or Honda
Toyota is good at mass production of electrical appliances
"Toyota is good at mass production of electrical appliances"
Samsung and LG do better.
"Toyota is good at mass production of electrical appliances"
Samsung and LG do better.
– You have obviously never bought Samsung Electronics...
We will see Toyota bZ4X EV coming out next year (or 2023).
So far, 2 million people want Tesla. Personally, I bought Nissan first, and now I have Hyundai. Both are affordable and decent cars.
The electric cars that people really want to buy are made in China, lighter than real ICE powered alternatives, and much cheaper. This is why people are clamoring for them, even if no one else is paying for government price subsidies.
It didn't take long for Toyota to be on par with General Motors in the field of electric vehicles. Toyota is likely to produce reliable and safe electric vehicles, which may not catch fire.
I am thinking that Toyota may go bankrupt after 2030? They lost their advantage and lacked focus. They must now decide which path to choose.
"I'm thinking that Toyota may go bankrupt after 2030? They have lost their advantage and lack focus. They must now decide which path to choose."
You can say the same to General Motors in the 70s.
All this battery nonsense is stupid. All these main bets are made individually, just to shut down the climate chick. Remember when hybrid cars will take over the world? Where are they now? The Tesla waiting to be used needs a new battery. Or when old batteries need to be recycled.
Of course, battery fans have whimsical ideas about every problem. Of course, it is not based on reality. The price of the battery will drop, so replacement will not be a problem. Yes, that's right. For those who own Leaf, the cold comfort can be operated with pedals that now take its range into consideration. Used batteries can be recycled. Really? Children use soldering irons in Jakarta’s landfill, just like personal computers nowadays? What about the environment? These open-pit mines can be turned into parks, where unicorns, Bigfoot and Al Gore can mate because they roll in their organic dump. Again, Tesla has sold 1 million cars, right? several years? What kind of market share is earned at the same time? Give me a break.
If I run a car manufacturer, I will work with several other companies or companies like Magna to make a standardized skateboard, and then install some different body styles for it. Do you spend $70B on various power system bets? Sounds stupid, you would think California is doing this.
Back in the early 90s, when all PC manufacturers were hype on major hardware for differentiation, Michael Dell went out and bought a bunch of ready-made things, assembled them by order-and cleared everyone's clocks. Not spending billions of dollars on research and development, wait, wait, wait.
The same can happen with electric vehicles.
Exhale and exhaust to own the library.
"Battery prices will drop, so replacement will not be a problem. Yes, that's right."
Since Tesla started producing cars, battery prices have dropped six times? Yes, they will fall further.
"Used batteries can be recycled. Really?"
Yes really. The non-PCB components of the battery are easier to recycle than the PCBs that make up the inside of the PC.
"By the way, Tesla has sold 1 million cars, right? How many years? What market share does it earn at the same time?"
Tesla is expected to sell nearly 1 million vehicles in 2021. The reason why their stock valuations are so is mainly because people think they are more capable than other automakers in responding to the upcoming electric vehicle directives in the world's two largest auto markets (China and Europe).
"If I run a car manufacturer, I will work with several other companies or companies like Magna to make a standardized skateboard, and then install some different body styles for it."
It sounds a lot like what everyone from General Motors to Hyundai Motors to Rivian is trying to do. The challenge is not to design components, but to manufacture batteries and sourcing materials for them. This is the real money spent.
like this. The electric horse has left the barn. Whether you or anyone else likes it, they will come. No matter what objections you can think of (range, charging infrastructure, batteries, etc.), they will be overcome-because BEV is what the government wants. If your objection is established, your only option is to fight the federal government.
By the way-in some areas of the country, Toyota RAV 4 Prime has a waiting time of 12 months... so yes
"Dianma has left the barn."
Fortunately, if there is no extension cord, it won't go too far.
"Whether you or anyone else likes it, they will come."
"By the way, in some parts of the country, the waiting time for Toyota RAV 4 Prime is 12 months...so yes"
I believe it, but Bolt, Leaf, whatever Hyundai is selling—not so much.
Tesla's quality is poor, while Toyota's quality is good. Tesla is a leader in the production of electric cars, but their cars are expensive (most people can't afford it). If anyone can make a high-quality and reasonably priced electric car, it must be Toyota. If their solid-state batteries can be produced at a lower cost and in mass production, then Toyota may eventually become the leader of electric vehicles. Toyota is known for its boringness and equipment, but affordability and reliability are what most buyers seek. Strictly speaking, I would buy Toyota electric cars instead of Teslas, because Toyota spends time and energy to make their vehicles reliable.
@Jeff S: Very good summary. This may be why Toyota seems to be late to the market. Looking at the patent application, they have been working on BEV for a long time. I think for quality reasons, if they can, they want to use solid-state batteries directly. I fully respect Toyota's approach, even though the smoke screen they adopted to delay or delay the electric car market is a bit sticky.
Tesla's manufacturing quality definitely needs to be improved, but I think the transmission system and battery technology are quite good. I think the manufacturing technology of the new factory and the less pressure from Fremont should improve the quality of the construction, but we have to wait and see.
However, Tesla's can be reliable. There are more and more stories about their cars breaking the 400,000 mile mark.
https://insideevs.com/news/554187/424000-mile-tesla-models-review/
mcs-There is a difference between durability and reliability.
Give me an electric car that is charged in the sun, with 500 miles of range, and a battery that I can replace during the first 100,000 miles of warranty, and I will accept it on suggestion.
Buickman founder GeneralWatch.com DollingerDiffrence.com
Makes me skeptical of solid-state batteries. Since the early 1990s, the company has been chasing this technology.
When electric cars can do this, they will become practical alternatives to ICE, in the following order: 1. Cold soak for 10 hours and unplug it at -20°F. 2. Drive 400 miles on the highway at 80 MPH, the ambient temperature is 10°F, and the cabin temperature is set to 72°F. 3. In a 10°F environment, charge 10% to 90% within five minutes.
None of my ICE vehicles can do this.
(Is there a different standard in Miami, Florida? Ask a friend.)
All this about electricity is good, but in the world we live in, the United States does not have the infrastructure to support it-let alone the rest of the world.
Long-distance travel by train could not be better for me, but it will never happen in this country.
Now human beings are destroying the earth, mining all "rare earth" metals such as lithium, manufacturing and supplying all battery technology, maybe even worse?
Talking on paper is great, but what about in the real world? Time will tell us.
"All this about electricity is good, but in the world we live in, the United States does not have the infrastructure to support it-let alone the rest of the world."
Infrastructure grows with demand.
"Infrastructure grows with demand."
Well, the United States has been in need of new infrastructure for 50 years.
The total electricity generation in the United States, in billions of kilowatt-hours:
Over the past decade, it has stabilized (probably due to political regulation), but the overall power generation has grown faster than the US population.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us-generation-capacity-and-sales.php
I think Toyota should buy Tesla before its market value reaches Looney Tunes. Let Tesla develop battery technology and let Toyota develop actual cars. Marriage made in heaven.
Not long ago, Toyota had the RAV4 EV equipped with Tesla's powertrain, and then let it die.
Until recently, Toyota has been telling everyone how stupid electric cars are. They have never had any interest in Tesla, and Musk will never let Tesla be ruled by Toyota.
I can’t figure out why so many people think Toyota is run by stupid people. May make strategists smarter than anyone expressing their opinions here. When you look back at what Akio Toyoda said, he pointed out that electric cars were designed for Western developed countries, not the number of clicks. He predicts that by 2030, 35% of Toyota's global production will be pure electric vehicles. In other words, approximately 6 or 7 million cars are gasoline, hybrid, PHEV, and hydrogen each year. The West is not the world. When a sleepy "reporter" asked why all Toyota cars will not become BEVS by 2030, Daily Kanban wrote:
“Toyota Akio replied that the global automobile market and its energy situation are diverse. Toyoda said that Toyota does not want to “inconvenience” customers by forcing customers to use cars that are not suitable for their lives. The market provides diversified solutions. He made it clear that the goal is 100% carbon neutrality, not necessarily 100% batteries."
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